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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Betting markets see former President Donald Trump's fourth criminal indictment, brought this week by a Georgia District Attorney, as moderately decreasing Trump's prospects of winning the 2024 presidential election.
- According to data from Smarkets, President Biden remains slight favourite for 2024 with a 39% implied probability of winning. Trump's implied probability has dipped from 33% earlier this month, the highest he has recorded since announcing his candidacy, to 27% today.
- The Georgia indictment, seen by some analysts as the most the threatening to Trump, has done little to impact the race for the Republican nomination but may affect Trump's electability amongst independent voters.
- A new poll from the Associated Press found that Trump is increasingly vulnerable amongst voters outside Trump's core base. AP: “While most Republicans — 74% — say they would support him in November 2024, 53% of Americans say they would definitely not support him if he is the nominee. Another 11% say they would probably not support him in November 2024.”
Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Winner
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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