Trump May Have Smoother Path To Electoral College Win

Doug Sosnik, a former senior advisor to former President Bill Clinton, has published analysisof the 2024 Electoral College outlook in the New York Times, concluding that former President Donald Trump likely has a smoother path to the 270 votes needed to secure the White House than President Biden.

• Sosnik writes: “If the election remains close but Mr. Biden is unable to regain support from the core group of voters who propelled him to victory in 2020 — young and nonwhite voters — then we could be headed to a repeat of the 2016 election. The outcome of that election was decided by fewer than 80,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”
• Sosnik adds that, “Last week’s abortion ruling in Arizona, and the likely abortion ballot initiatives in that state and Nevada, give Mr. Biden the possibility of being re-elected even if he loses Michigan.”
• Sabato's Crystal Ball today shifted two key Arizona races towards Democrats in light of the "blockbuster state court decision," on abortion: The open Senate race from "toss-up" to "lean-democrat" and the Republican-held 6th district from "lean-Republican" to "tossup." The rating changes suggest that the abortion ruling could also benefit Biden at the top of the ticket.
• Betting and prediction markets continue to see the race as an effective dead-heat after Biden erased Trump's early advantage.