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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Former President Donald Trump has overtaken President Biden as the favourite to win the 2024 presidential election for the first time since last year's US Midterm Elections, according to Smarkets.
- According to data from Smarkets, Trump has a 34% implied probability of winning compared with 32% for Biden.
- The data from betting markets reflects a punishing month for Biden which has seen a flurry of national surveys showing that voters are unconvinced by Biden's economic agenda and remain deeply concerned by his age and competence for office.
- The Smarkets shift is supported by data from Election Odds, an aggregator which processes inputs from a range of political prediction markets. Election Odds shows that Trump has a 35% implied probability of winning compared to Biden with 30% - a 6.5% swing in the past week.
Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Winner
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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