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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
A tracker of betting and prediction markets odds, has shown former President Donald Trump as the prediction market favourite to win the 2024 presidential election for the first time.
- According, to ElectionBettingOdds, Trump's implied probability of winning is 32%. Marginally ahead of President Joe Biden with 31.6%.
- The data suggests that a slew of recent negative publicity over President Biden's age and the upcoming Republican impeachment inquiry in President Biden's foreign business dealings may be contributing to a tightening of the race.
- Advocates of prediction market data argue that the liquid nature of the markets create a more accurate picture of sentiment.
- The data should be approached cautiously but taken with polling data hinting at similarly tightening margins, and a downtrend in Biden's approval rating, there are clear signs that the 2024 race will be closer than anticipated for much of the first half of the year.
Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Winner, 30 Day Chart (Trump, Yellow/ Biden, Blue)
Source: ElectionBettingOdds
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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