Trump Overturns 10-Point Biden Lead In New Hampshire

Saint Anselm College poll has issued Biden a flashing warning light with a post-presidential debate poll showing Trump is now leading in New Hampshire. According to the poll, Trump now holds a two-point lead in the state – a 12-point swing from December when Biden led by 10-points in the same poll.

• For context, a Republican presidential candidate has only won NH once since 1988, George W. Bush in 2000 by a margin of 1.4%. Biden won the state in 2020, 52.7% - 45.4%.
• New Hampshire Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque summarized the results: “Donald Trump has erased a ten-point polling deficit and now leads President Joe Biden by a narrow 2-point margin. However, with 17 percent of voters having an unfavorable opinion of both candidates, this race is likely to remain volatile all the way to the finish.”
• Saint Anselm College notes: “...Trump is marginally more popular than [Biden]… Trump’s marginal popularity edge translates into a slight ballot lead."
• Notably, according to the poll: “Biden underperforms Democratic registration strength and a Democratic generic ballot advantage. Biden trails by 2 points on the ballot despite the Democratic Party carrying a narrow edge on registration over Republicans (32%-31%), party identification (47%-46%), and on the generic ballot (46%-43%).”

Figure 1: New Hampshire Presidential Preference