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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Saint Anselm College poll has issued Biden a flashing warning light with a post-presidential debate poll showing Trump is now leading in New Hampshire. According to the poll, Trump now holds a two-point lead in the state – a 12-point swing from December when Biden led by 10-points in the same poll.
- For context, a Republican presidential candidate has only won NH once since 1988, George W. Bush in 2000 by a margin of 1.4%. Biden won the state in 2020, 52.7% - 45.4%.
- New Hampshire Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque summarized the results: “Donald Trump has erased a ten-point polling deficit and now leads President Joe Biden by a narrow 2-point margin. However, with 17 percent of voters having an unfavorable opinion of both candidates, this race is likely to remain volatile all the way to the finish.”
- Saint Anselm College notes: “...Trump is marginally more popular than [Biden]… Trump’s marginal popularity edge translates into a slight ballot lead."
- Notably, according to the poll: “Biden underperforms Democratic registration strength and a Democratic generic ballot advantage. Biden trails by 2 points on the ballot despite the Democratic Party carrying a narrow edge on registration over Republicans (32%-31%), party identification (47%-46%), and on the generic ballot (46%-43%).”
Figure 1: New Hampshire Presidential Preference
Source: New Hampshire Institute of Politics, Saint Anselm College
Figure 2: New Hampshire Recent Presidential Election Voting History
Source: 270towin
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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