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Trump's Guilty Verdict Unlikely To Change Presidential Election Calculus

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Early analysis of polling data appears to support a prevailing view that former President Donald Trump’s conviction in the Manhattan “hush money” trial will likely deliver a moderate polling boost to President Biden but may not significantly impact the presidential race.

  • A new Morning Consult finds 49% of independents and 15% of Republicans said Trump should end his campaign because of the conviction.
  • A new Reuters poll finds: “Ten percent of Republican registered voters say they are less likely to vote for Donald Trump following his felony conviction...” Politico notes on the Reuters poll, “That is a significant number and higher than the results in some hypothetical polling before the verdict.”
  • MNI's Political Risk team noted last week: “We are inclined to approach any polling over the next few days with caution,” adding that, "historical data suggests that voters are not particularly good at determining their future voting intentions."
  • According to Polymarket, Smarkets, and ElectionBettingOdds, Trump is still slightly favoured to win with an implied probability of roughly 50%. Biden’s is given an implied probability of roughly 40% - slightly tighter than pre-verdict.
  • Politico reports on the prospect of Trump serving time in prison: “In the last 48 hours we’ve noticed a shift in conventional wisdom over whether Donald Trump might be incarcerated, with more legal analysts now saying it’s possible.”
  • Data from Polymarket suggests Trump has a 20% implied probability of spending 48 consecutive hours in custody in a jail or prison before Election Day.
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Early analysis of polling data appears to support a prevailing view that former President Donald Trump’s conviction in the Manhattan “hush money” trial will likely deliver a moderate polling boost to President Biden but may not significantly impact the presidential race.

  • A new Morning Consult finds 49% of independents and 15% of Republicans said Trump should end his campaign because of the conviction.
  • A new Reuters poll finds: “Ten percent of Republican registered voters say they are less likely to vote for Donald Trump following his felony conviction...” Politico notes on the Reuters poll, “That is a significant number and higher than the results in some hypothetical polling before the verdict.”
  • MNI's Political Risk team noted last week: “We are inclined to approach any polling over the next few days with caution,” adding that, "historical data suggests that voters are not particularly good at determining their future voting intentions."
  • According to Polymarket, Smarkets, and ElectionBettingOdds, Trump is still slightly favoured to win with an implied probability of roughly 50%. Biden’s is given an implied probability of roughly 40% - slightly tighter than pre-verdict.
  • Politico reports on the prospect of Trump serving time in prison: “In the last 48 hours we’ve noticed a shift in conventional wisdom over whether Donald Trump might be incarcerated, with more legal analysts now saying it’s possible.”
  • Data from Polymarket suggests Trump has a 20% implied probability of spending 48 consecutive hours in custody in a jail or prison before Election Day.