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Trump's Manhattan Hush Money Conviction Could Give Biden Edge

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The Telegraph reports that, according to a small-scale tracker of expert opinion, “for the first time in the course of the US election, Joe Biden appears to have the edge over Donald Trump,” following Trump’s guilty verdict in the Manhattan hush money trial.

  • The Telegraph tracker follows, “five experts to regularly predict who will win one of the tightest US elections in recent history… Following developments from the US, our experts will periodically plot their likely winner on a sliding scale, each time explaining their decision.”
  • Data Editor Ben Butcher said: "Nationally, the polls remain nail-bitingly close as they have done for months. In a normal election, a criminal conviction could help break this stalemate, but a key poll, released on the day of the verdict, suggests this is unlikely."
  • Politcal Historian Tim Stanley noted on the other side of the ledger: "Today, two thirds of Americans insist a “guilty” verdict remains unimportant to them – but the tightness of this election means that the 17 per cent who are thinking about dumping the Republican ticket is statistically significant."

Figure 1: Expert Opinion Tracker Over Three Months

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The Telegraph reports that, according to a small-scale tracker of expert opinion, “for the first time in the course of the US election, Joe Biden appears to have the edge over Donald Trump,” following Trump’s guilty verdict in the Manhattan hush money trial.

  • The Telegraph tracker follows, “five experts to regularly predict who will win one of the tightest US elections in recent history… Following developments from the US, our experts will periodically plot their likely winner on a sliding scale, each time explaining their decision.”
  • Data Editor Ben Butcher said: "Nationally, the polls remain nail-bitingly close as they have done for months. In a normal election, a criminal conviction could help break this stalemate, but a key poll, released on the day of the verdict, suggests this is unlikely."
  • Politcal Historian Tim Stanley noted on the other side of the ledger: "Today, two thirds of Americans insist a “guilty” verdict remains unimportant to them – but the tightness of this election means that the 17 per cent who are thinking about dumping the Republican ticket is statistically significant."

Figure 1: Expert Opinion Tracker Over Three Months

Keep reading...Show less