Trump Super PAC Could Influence Key Senate Races

Former President Donald Trump has announced his first major foray into campaign funding 25 days out from the midterms.

• Trump's "MAGA Inc" has begun funneling money into the five most competitive Senate races. Ohio, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada. Three of those have underperforming Trump-endorsed candidates.
  • If Republicans flip the Senate, Trump will likely claim credit and it could provide a platform for a 2024 presidential bid.
• The Georgia Senate race remains too close to call despite the intensity of scandal surrounding Republican Herschel Walker.
• Polling shows incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock (D-GA) with a slight lead but the dynamics are shifting, with increased coordination from GOP HQ.
  • Walker this week received a USD$450,000 boost from Senators Tom Cotton (R-AK) and Rick Scott (R-FL).
• The race between Republican JD Vance and Democrat Tim Ryan (D-OH) for the open Ohio Senate seat is polling as a dead heat.
• Ohio leans Republican and pollsters tend to underestimated Republican candidates. Ryan will hope his centrist appeal will offset Ohio's partisan lean.
• The wildcard in Ohio will be the SCOTUS “Dobbs” decision. A projected higher turnout from female voters could swing the race for Ryan.