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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TURKEY
- USD/TRY trades +0.13% higher this morning, broadly bucking early selling pressure on the BBDXY as pre-CBRT nerves set in.
- The cross closed yesterday's session +0.28% higher, with price action getting choppy around the FOMC statement and presser.
- Fed Guidance on the taper hinted at a move to start "soon" likely intimating November, with a slightly more hawkish 2022 dot plot distribution hinting at a slightly earlier than expected first hike in 2022 instead of 2023.
- The mostly hawkish reaction to Powell's presser is slowly being pared this morning, however, but should continue to precipitate volatility in today's session on the USD side as markets digest the outcome.
- Today's focus shifts to the CBRT where we see a pivotal decision for TRY stability. While our base case sees a hold at this meeting, some analysts see potential for a -50bp cut which could see some post decision volatility in USD/TRY.
- Focus will be on phraseology changes regarding the pivot to core CPI and the degree to which the CBRT guides towards near-term hikes.
- The cross seems well supported around 8.50-8.40 with markets expecting a more dovish reaction function to weigh on TRY over the medium term, even if this decision is a hold, with the sell-side likely favouring a fade TRY strength approach into year end.
- Intraday Sup1: 8.5905, Sup2: 8.5516, Res1: 8.6843, Res2: 8.7525, Res3: 8.8008 (bull trigger).
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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