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Tsy Futures Back To Early Nov Levels, Data Picks Up Tuesday

US TSYS
Carry-over moderate support for rates overnight dissipated quickly after the NY open, initially triggered by weaker German Bunds Monday. No obvious headline trigger on moves as rate futures continued to make new lows after the close while equities traded mildly lower (ESZ1 -2.5).
  • Some desks cited higher yields for weaker stocks, while former Fed pres' Dudley and Lacker interview on Bbg TV didn't help: estimated rates could rise to 3-4% while Lacker said "It seems to be plausible we get to 3.5% or 4% and in addition that we push the economy into a recession."
  • Limited data: NY Empire State Manufacturing survey was stronger than expected in November, bringing with it further inflationary pressures; mfg business conditions index was above consensus in Nov, up from 19.8 to 30.9 (survey 22). Focus on Tue's Retail Sales, Import/export prices, IP/Cap-U.
  • Tsys drew sporadic fast$ buying covering tactical shorts, two-way deal-tied hedging/unwinds, while larger theme remains better real$ and bank portfolio selling in 10s and 30s as volumes gradually improved. Yield curves bear steepened as Tsy futures slipped back to early Nov levels (5s30s well off early Fri's 63.704 low to 75.673 in late trade).
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 0.6bps at 0.5177%, 5-Yr is up 3.1bps at 1.2522%, 10-Yr is up 5.7bps at 1.618%, and 30-Yr is up 7bps at 2.0008%.
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