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Free AccessTsy Futures Extend Gains Ahead Midday, Early 2024 Projected Hike Dips
- US Treasury futures extended gains in the last few minutes, near the middle of the week's range as shorts consolidate following this morning's higher than expected Q3 GDP (4.9% vs. 4.5% est, 2.1% prior) - largely driven by inventories and softer than expected core PCE prices (2.4% vs. 2.5% est) and jobless claims (210k vs 207k est, 198k prior) at their highest in five months, suggesting that labor market tightness may start to wane.
- Current Dec'23 10Y futures +11.5 at 106-01 vs. 106-03.5 high, still well below initial technical resistance of 106-31 (20-day EMA). 10Y yield at 4.8997% (-.0552) vs. 4.9873% high overnight.
- Curves running mostly steeper: 3M10Y an exception at -57.951 (-4.398), 2Y 10Y +.722 at -16.058, while 5Y30Y gains +5.054 at 21.278.
- FI short end support translates to softer projected rate hikes into early 2024: November holding at 1.6%, w/ implied rate change of +.4bp to 5.333%, December cumulative of 5.5bp at 5.383%, January 2024 cumulative 7.9bp at 5.408%, while March 2024 slips to 3.5bp at 5.364%. Fed terminal at 5.438% in Jan'24. Fed terminal at 5.410% in Feb'24.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.