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US TSYS SUMMARY: *** Tsy futures trading higher/near session highs after midday,
long end outperforming amid rather modest overall volume.
- Early bid for rates, European sources suggested Tsys lead EGBs while domestic
accts said EGBs lead Tsys, the basic chicken or the egg conundrum in late summer
trade. Risk assets suffered.
- Early Tsy support coincided with a drop in USD vs. Yen, adding to the risk-off
bid already present. Risk off buying in 5s and 10s O/N as US Pres Trump
threatened to shut down government if needed to get funding for US-Mexico border
wall; also indicated that US could eventually pull out of NAFTA. Modest FX acct
buying as USD dipped.
- Flow included asset allocation trades as stocks retreated following Tue's
rally; Sep to Dec Tsy futures volume picked up in earnest, +75k FVU/FVZ at 9.0
in early trade.
- Modest deal-tied flow, little react to second-tier data (July new home sales
-9.4% to 571 SAAR, well below the 613k rate expected.) Fitch said may "review
U.S. rating negatively witout debt ceiling raise."