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Tsy Yields Rebound, Little React to Data, Fed Speak

US TSYS
  • Treasuries scaled back from early overnight highs, holding a moderately weaker range late Monday. Little react to this morning's lower than expected New Home Sales at 662k vs. 675k est (prior up-revised to 664k from 661k), MoM -0.3% vs. 2.1% est (prior up-revised to 1.7% from 1.5%).
  • Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said Monday officials must cautiously balance the risk of easing monetary policy too much or too soon, allowing inflation to linger above target, and taking too long to ease, which could harm the economy needlessly and deprive people of economic opportunities.
  • Futures remain mildly weaker, near low end of narrow session range: TYM4 -7.5 at 110-16.5 vs. 110-15 low, w/ technical support well below at 109-24+ (Low Mar 18 and the bear trigger). Curves steeper: 2s10s +1.501 at -37.818.
  • The Tsy $66B 2Y note auction (91282CKH3) drew 4.595% high yield vs. 4.592% WI; 2.62x bid-to-cover vs. 2.49x prior. Despite the small tail, futures drew modest short cover support on stronger peripheral support: Indirect take-up at 65.76% vs. 65.16% prior, directs took 20.88% vs. 20.11% last month, primary dealer take-up 13.36% vs. 14.73% prior.
  • Projected rate cut pricing continued to cool: May 2024 at -12.9% vs. -14.5% this morning w/ cumulative -3.2bp at 5.296%; June 2024 -65.8% vs. -66.7% w/ cumulative rate cut -19.7bp at 5.132%. July'24 cumulative at -30.6bp vs. -32.0bp.
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