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US TSYS: Tsys Futures Edge Higher, 10yr Yield At 4.766%

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Tsys futures are trading slightly higher today, although ranges are narrow. Long-end contracts are outperforming, however all the gains were made on the opened, and we have since been slowly pairing those gains are the session has progressed. TU is +01⅛ at 102-17¼, while TY is trading +06 at 107-13+
  • The trend in Treasury futures is unchanged and remains bearish. Yesterday’s bearish start to the week, has once again, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 107-04 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is seen at 108-26, the 20-day EMA.
  • Cash tsys yields are slightly lower today, although still remain near Friday's highs. The 2yr is -0.2bps at 4.377%, while the 10yr is -1.2bps at 4.766%. The 2s10s is 1bp lower at 38.408.
  • Trump's economic team is considering a gradual rollout of tariffs, increasing 2-5% monthly, to enhance negotiating leverage while minimizing inflation risks.
  • Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 continued to retreat on Monday, we have given back about 1bp of that move through to June, however firmed 2bps for July vs. late Friday levels ()*: Jan'25 steady at -0.7bp, Mar'25 -5.4bp (-6.3bp), May'25 -9.5bp (-10.5bp), Jun'25 -17.3bp (-18.2bp), Jul'25 -20.2bp (20.2bp).
  • Later today we have PPI & Federal Budget Balance, focus will then turn to Wednesday’s US CPI.
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  • Tsys futures are trading slightly higher today, although ranges are narrow. Long-end contracts are outperforming, however all the gains were made on the opened, and we have since been slowly pairing those gains are the session has progressed. TU is +01⅛ at 102-17¼, while TY is trading +06 at 107-13+
  • The trend in Treasury futures is unchanged and remains bearish. Yesterday’s bearish start to the week, has once again, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 107-04 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is seen at 108-26, the 20-day EMA.
  • Cash tsys yields are slightly lower today, although still remain near Friday's highs. The 2yr is -0.2bps at 4.377%, while the 10yr is -1.2bps at 4.766%. The 2s10s is 1bp lower at 38.408.
  • Trump's economic team is considering a gradual rollout of tariffs, increasing 2-5% monthly, to enhance negotiating leverage while minimizing inflation risks.
  • Projected rate cuts through mid-2025 continued to retreat on Monday, we have given back about 1bp of that move through to June, however firmed 2bps for July vs. late Friday levels ()*: Jan'25 steady at -0.7bp, Mar'25 -5.4bp (-6.3bp), May'25 -9.5bp (-10.5bp), Jun'25 -17.3bp (-18.2bp), Jul'25 -20.2bp (20.2bp).
  • Later today we have PPI & Federal Budget Balance, focus will then turn to Wednesday’s US CPI.