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Tsys Futures Edge Lower Ahead of July 4th, Employ Data Friday

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures are little changed today, with cash trading closed for the July 4th Holiday. TU is trading -0-00⅞ at 102-04, while TY is slightly underperforming the front-end at -0-05+ at 109-28+.
  • Volumes in the front-end are half what they were yesterday with TU 16k and FV 30k while is TY inline with yesterday at 54k.
  • The 10y yields remains within the recent downward trend at 4.36%, after reaching recent cycle highs of 4.375% in late April. The VIX is trading just off multi year lows at 12.09, while the BBG US Eco Surprise Index sits at the lowest levels 2015.
  • Overnight the US treasury sold $85b four-week bills at 5.28%, and $80b eight-week bills at 5.275%, signally investors are uncertain around the fed interest rate path.
  • FOMC Meeting Minutes were also out, with Federal Reserve officials needing no additional signs that inflation is heading back toward their 2% target before considering any interest rate cuts.
  • The Fed's Goolsbee emphasized the need for more data before the US central bank can confidently cut interest rates, expressing concerns about the labor market cooling more rapidly than desired.
  • The US presidential candidate winning odds have been moving around a bit amid speculation Biden may drop out of the race. Kamala Harris surged to be the favored Democratic nominee earlier, however has since dropped back post the governors meeting. According to PredictIt Republicans are now at a 59% chance of winning, while the Democrats are at 44%
  • Looking ahead, today we have July 4th Holiday cash trading to remain closed with futures closing early. Focus will turn to employment data on Friday.
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