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Tsys Futures Edge Lower As Haven Trade Unwinds, Curve Bear-Steepens

US TSYS
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  • Jun'24 10Y futures have edged lower today, hitting a low of 107-17+ we trade just off these levels now down - 09 + at 107-19+, below Thursday's lows and are eyeing a test of initial support is at 107-13+ (Apr 16 low).
  • Cash Treasury curve has bear-steepened today with yields 1-4bps higher, the 2Y yield is +1.6bps at 5.001%, 10Y +3.5bps to 4.656%, while the 2y10y was +1.951 at -34.985.
  • Across local rate markets, NZGBs are 6-7bps higher, ACGBs are 5-7bps higher and JGBs are 1-4bps higher, in the EM space INDON & PHILIP yields are 1-5bps higher.
  • Projected rate cut pricing held largely steady vs. late Thursday lvls: May 2024 -2.6% w/ cumulative -0.6bp at 5.322%; June 2024 at -13.5% w/ cumulative rate cut -4.5bp at 5.283%. July'24 cumulative at 12.1bp, Sep'24 cumulative -23bp.
  • Looking ahead: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index later Today
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  • Jun'24 10Y futures have edged lower today, hitting a low of 107-17+ we trade just off these levels now down - 09 + at 107-19+, below Thursday's lows and are eyeing a test of initial support is at 107-13+ (Apr 16 low).
  • Cash Treasury curve has bear-steepened today with yields 1-4bps higher, the 2Y yield is +1.6bps at 5.001%, 10Y +3.5bps to 4.656%, while the 2y10y was +1.951 at -34.985.
  • Across local rate markets, NZGBs are 6-7bps higher, ACGBs are 5-7bps higher and JGBs are 1-4bps higher, in the EM space INDON & PHILIP yields are 1-5bps higher.
  • Projected rate cut pricing held largely steady vs. late Thursday lvls: May 2024 -2.6% w/ cumulative -0.6bp at 5.322%; June 2024 at -13.5% w/ cumulative rate cut -4.5bp at 5.283%. July'24 cumulative at 12.1bp, Sep'24 cumulative -23bp.
  • Looking ahead: Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index later Today