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Tsys Futures See Late Haven Bid On Iran/Israel Conflict, Fed On Hold

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures surged higher on Wednesday after the Fed opened the door for September rate cut if inflation continues to cool and the labor market remains steady, tsys also saw a strong haven bid after Iran orders attack on Israel for Tuesday's killing of Hamas political leader Haniyeh.
  • There has been strong buying post the bell, with tsys futures trading at their best since March 8th, TUU4 is + 05⅞ at 102-26⅝, while TYU4 is + 22+ at 112-08+
  • Cash treasury curve crunched tighter, with slightly better buying through the 3-7yr tenors. The 2yr closed -10bps at 4.257%, 7yr -11.7bps at 3.945%, 10yr -10.9bps at 4.030% while teh 2s10s closed -0.878 at -22.992.
  • (MNI) The Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold for an eighth straight meeting Wednesday but flagged progress on inflation and concerns about the employment outlook, a possible sign that policymakers are coalescing around the idea of a September rate cu - (See link)
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end look steady to firmer vs. early Wednesday levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -28.8bp, Nov'24 cumulative -46.9bp (-44.6bp), Dec'24 -72.4bp (-68.2bp).
  • Focus todaywill be on Jobless claims & S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
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