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Free AccessTsys Futures See Late Haven Bid On Iran/Israel Conflict, Fed On Hold
- Treasury futures surged higher on Wednesday after the Fed opened the door for September rate cut if inflation continues to cool and the labor market remains steady, tsys also saw a strong haven bid after Iran orders attack on Israel for Tuesday's killing of Hamas political leader Haniyeh.
- There has been strong buying post the bell, with tsys futures trading at their best since March 8th, TUU4 is + 05⅞ at 102-26⅝, while TYU4 is + 22+ at 112-08+
- Cash treasury curve crunched tighter, with slightly better buying through the 3-7yr tenors. The 2yr closed -10bps at 4.257%, 7yr -11.7bps at 3.945%, 10yr -10.9bps at 4.030% while teh 2s10s closed -0.878 at -22.992.
- (MNI) The Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold for an eighth straight meeting Wednesday but flagged progress on inflation and concerns about the employment outlook, a possible sign that policymakers are coalescing around the idea of a September rate cu - (See link)
- Projected rate cut pricing into year end look steady to firmer vs. early Wednesday levels (*): Sep'24 cumulative -28.8bp, Nov'24 cumulative -46.9bp (-44.6bp), Dec'24 -72.4bp (-68.2bp).
- Focus todaywill be on Jobless claims & S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.