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US TSYS: Tsys Futures Trade In Narrow Ranges As Cash Trading Closed

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • It has been another very slow Asian session for tsys, with Japan out meaning no cash trading again. Tsys futures have traded in narrow ranges, however all currently trade slightly higher for the session, although within Thursday's ranges. TU is +01 at 102-26¾, while TY is +05 at 108-31.
  • The trend condition in Treasury futures remains bearish despite the intraday rally into the Monday close. These short-term gains are considered corrective below the 110-03+ 20-day EMA. Last week’s sell-off reinforces the current bear cycle. The contract has traded through key short-term support and the bear trigger at 109-02+, the Nov 15 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 108+12+, a Fibonacci projection.
  • US bank reserves dropped below $3t to $2.89t, their lowest level since October 2020, due to year-end regulatory adjustments and the Fed's QT program. While the Fed continues QT and adjusts policies to manage liquidity, concerns are rising over potential reserve scarcity reminiscent of the 2019 funding squeeze. Most market participants anticipate QT could conclude by mid-2025, though the reinstated debt ceiling may complicate reserve assessments.
  • Friday data: ISM mfg & prices paid at 1000ET. Fed speak: Richmond Fed Barkin, bankers assn address (text, Q&A) at 1100ET. On Saturday: SF Fed Daly & Fed Gov Kugler mon-pol panel event (no text, Q&A) at 1730ET.
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  • It has been another very slow Asian session for tsys, with Japan out meaning no cash trading again. Tsys futures have traded in narrow ranges, however all currently trade slightly higher for the session, although within Thursday's ranges. TU is +01 at 102-26¾, while TY is +05 at 108-31.
  • The trend condition in Treasury futures remains bearish despite the intraday rally into the Monday close. These short-term gains are considered corrective below the 110-03+ 20-day EMA. Last week’s sell-off reinforces the current bear cycle. The contract has traded through key short-term support and the bear trigger at 109-02+, the Nov 15 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 108+12+, a Fibonacci projection.
  • US bank reserves dropped below $3t to $2.89t, their lowest level since October 2020, due to year-end regulatory adjustments and the Fed's QT program. While the Fed continues QT and adjusts policies to manage liquidity, concerns are rising over potential reserve scarcity reminiscent of the 2019 funding squeeze. Most market participants anticipate QT could conclude by mid-2025, though the reinstated debt ceiling may complicate reserve assessments.
  • Friday data: ISM mfg & prices paid at 1000ET. Fed speak: Richmond Fed Barkin, bankers assn address (text, Q&A) at 1100ET. On Saturday: SF Fed Daly & Fed Gov Kugler mon-pol panel event (no text, Q&A) at 1730ET.