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US TSYS: Tsys Kicking Off 2025 with Lower Yields, Curves Near Highs

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries unwinding New Years Eve weakness, futures contracts kicking off 2025 near late overnight highs: the Mar'25 10Y contract +10.5 at 109-02.5 vs. 109-04 high. Curves mixed: 2s10s -1.531 at 30.998, 5s30s +.515 at 40.266; 2Y yield -.0269 at 4.2147, 10Y yield -.0382 at 4.5308%.
  • Treasury futures remains bearish despite the intraday rally into the Monday close w/ short-term gains considered corrective below the 110-03+ 20-day EMA. The 10Y contract has traded through key short-term support and the bear trigger at 109-02+, the Nov 15 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 108+12+, a Fibonacci projection. 
  • Data ahead (prior, est): MBA Mortgage Applications (-0.7%, --) at 0700ET, Initial Jobless (219k, 221k) & Continuing Claims (1.910M, 1.890M) at 0830ET, S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (48.3, 48.3) at 0945ET, Construction Spending MoM (0.4%, 0.3%) at 1000ET.
  • US Treasury bill supply: $85B 4- & $80B 8W bill auctions at 1130ET, $64B 17W bill auction at 1300ET.
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  • Treasuries unwinding New Years Eve weakness, futures contracts kicking off 2025 near late overnight highs: the Mar'25 10Y contract +10.5 at 109-02.5 vs. 109-04 high. Curves mixed: 2s10s -1.531 at 30.998, 5s30s +.515 at 40.266; 2Y yield -.0269 at 4.2147, 10Y yield -.0382 at 4.5308%.
  • Treasury futures remains bearish despite the intraday rally into the Monday close w/ short-term gains considered corrective below the 110-03+ 20-day EMA. The 10Y contract has traded through key short-term support and the bear trigger at 109-02+, the Nov 15 low. The breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 108+12+, a Fibonacci projection. 
  • Data ahead (prior, est): MBA Mortgage Applications (-0.7%, --) at 0700ET, Initial Jobless (219k, 221k) & Continuing Claims (1.910M, 1.890M) at 0830ET, S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (48.3, 48.3) at 0945ET, Construction Spending MoM (0.4%, 0.3%) at 1000ET.
  • US Treasury bill supply: $85B 4- & $80B 8W bill auctions at 1130ET, $64B 17W bill auction at 1300ET.