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Tsys Strong Ahead March NFP, S&P futures Top 4,000

US TSYS SUMMARY
Steady move higher from early overnight to around noon Thursday, Tsys traded sideways/holding near top end of range through the close as equity futures topped 4,000 for the first time, yld curves bulll flattened.
  • Post-Claims Bid: Slight delay post data before bid on decent volumes, futures made new session highs after wkly claims came out higher than exp (719k vs. 675k est), continuing claims pretty much in line at 3.794M. , yld curves bull flattening:
  • All better reads on Mfg ISM data drew immediate selling followed by brief buying on the follow, some desks posited data was miss vs. whisper number on the heels of Wed's 5pt beat on Chicago PMI.
  • Treasury sources report waves of real$ buying in long end as yield curves resume bull flattening, foreign acct buying intermediates, sporadic month end buying in the mix vs. swap-tied selling in 5s-10s.
  • FRBNY EFFR for prior session: Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 0.06% volume: $56B; Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 0.05%, volume: $148B. Relevance:
  • Last year, OBFR dipped to 0.05% on April 1 as well and stayed there through June 1 with a brief dip to 0.04% on April 21 to May 1. Focus is speculation whether the Fed will raise IOER if EFFR dips below 5bps or less.
  • Early close Friday w/March NFP at normal 0830ET, median est +650k.
  • The 2-Yr yield is down 0.2bps at 0.1585%, 5-Yr is down 3.5bps at 0.9042%, 10-Yr is down 6.3bps at 1.677%, and 30-Yr is down 7.1bps at 2.3392%.

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