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US TSYS: Tsys Weaker/Off Lows, Challenger Job Cut Surge, USMCA Tariff Deferral

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries look to finish moderately lower for the most part, off lows, curves broadly steeper with short end rates outperforming (2s10s +4.720 at 31.684, off early high of 35.666).
  • Busy session as rates see-sawed off early highs, heavy volumes (TYM5 near 3M after the bell) as rates rallied after Challenger job cut announcements surged in February to 172k, a 103% YoY increase largely tied to government layoffs.
  • Rates pared gains after weekly jobless claims: Initial claims were lower than expected at 221k (sa, cons 233k) in the week to March 1, after an unrevised 242k.
  • Treasury futures see-sawed lower after Commerce Sec Lutnick floated that the USMCA tariff will "likely" be delayed to April 2", but rebounded after President Trump confirmed the deferral, stocks falling to mid-September lows.
  • Speaking at a WSJ event after the bell, Fed Gov Waller said wasn't thinking of a rate cut at the March 19 meeting - but "sees no problem with forecast of 2 rate cuts this year".
  • Focus squarely on Friday morning's February employment report release at 0830ET, while Fed Chair Powell will discuss his economic outlook (text, Q&A) at Chicago Booth's Monetary Policy Forum at 1230ET.
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  • Treasuries look to finish moderately lower for the most part, off lows, curves broadly steeper with short end rates outperforming (2s10s +4.720 at 31.684, off early high of 35.666).
  • Busy session as rates see-sawed off early highs, heavy volumes (TYM5 near 3M after the bell) as rates rallied after Challenger job cut announcements surged in February to 172k, a 103% YoY increase largely tied to government layoffs.
  • Rates pared gains after weekly jobless claims: Initial claims were lower than expected at 221k (sa, cons 233k) in the week to March 1, after an unrevised 242k.
  • Treasury futures see-sawed lower after Commerce Sec Lutnick floated that the USMCA tariff will "likely" be delayed to April 2", but rebounded after President Trump confirmed the deferral, stocks falling to mid-September lows.
  • Speaking at a WSJ event after the bell, Fed Gov Waller said wasn't thinking of a rate cut at the March 19 meeting - but "sees no problem with forecast of 2 rate cuts this year".
  • Focus squarely on Friday morning's February employment report release at 0830ET, while Fed Chair Powell will discuss his economic outlook (text, Q&A) at Chicago Booth's Monetary Policy Forum at 1230ET.