TTF Declines with Temperatures Back Towards Normal Next Week

TTF front month is back trading below 50€/MWh as weather forecasts for NW and central Europe show temperatures edging back up towards normal and wind generation picking up next week after the cool start to March.

• TTF MAR 23 down -4.4% at 48.75€/MWh
• TTF SUM 23 down -3.6% at 49.65€/MWh
• Demand reduction measures have combined with warmer weather this winter to help keep gas storage levels well above normal easing the pressure on the LNG supplies required to restock ahead of next winter. Temperature adjusted consumption in Germany was 15.3% below the average in calendar week seven according to Bnetza data last week.
• Global competition for LNG supplies remains an upside risk for Europe but imports were last week stable and up to 456mcm/d on 22 Feb driven by the slightly higher heating demand at the end of Feb.
• Norwegian supplies are just slightly higher today at 339.6mcm/d and Russian gas supplies flowing through Ukraine are nominated at 41.4mcm/d.
• European gas in storage is at 62.45% according to GIE data from 25 Feb compared to the five year average of 42.3%.