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TTF Drifts Lower on Mild Forecast Despite Curtailed Norway Supplies

NATURAL GAS

TTF front month is trading lower this morning but still above the lows from yesterday with downside pressure from a slightly warmer weather forecast to offset ongoing cuts to Norwegian pipeline supplies.

    • TTF MAR 24 down -1.5% at 28.17€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -1.5% at 28.61€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -1.9% at 32.62€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down -1.5% at 30.2€/MWh
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated back up to 326.7mcm/d but still below flows seen last week due to the ongoing unplanned outages at Troll and Nyhamna.
  • Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast to remain above normal this week and extending slightly further into the middle of the month but still possibly back to near normal from around Feb 14.
  • Net withdrawal rates remain below normal since Jan 19 with European natural gas storage at 68.61% full on Feb 5 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 54.85%.
  • European LNG sendout was up slightly to 333mcm/d on Feb 5 but still low compared to around 430mcm/d seen this time last year.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is down today to 39.3mcm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was at 238k yesterday.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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