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TTF Edges Higher on Cooler Weather Risk amid Strong Supplies

NATURAL GAS

TTF is edging higher but within yesterday’s trading range with strong supplies weighed against the forecast of slightly cooler weather in the second week of the outlook.

    • TTF DEC 23 up 0.9% at 46.2€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 up 0.9% at 47.82€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 0.5% at 46.2€/MWh
  • The latest weather forecast for NW Europe shows above normal temperatures next week after a brief cold spell into this weekend. The forecast for the second week of the outlook is looking cooler with potential for temperatures to dip to near of just below normal.
  • European LNG sendout continues to increase up to 437mcm/d on 7 Nov as floating tankers unload cargoes with November expecting to see a month on month rise in imports.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are strong up at 345.3mcm/d today after the end of an unplanned outage from the Gjoa field. Flows are expected to dip again into the weekend with a 22mcm/d outage at Oseberg on 10-12 Nov.
  • European natural gas storage levels are almost unchanged from yesterday at 99.61% full but with the first net withdrawal of the winter of just 178GWh/d on 7 Nov according to GIE data.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are slightly higher up to 49.4mcm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volumes were yesterday slightly lower at 208k.
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