TTF Extends Bearish Trend with Low Demand and Strong LNG Supply

European gas markets continue to trend lower with wider market demand concerns weighing on prices and assisted by high LNG imports and healthy storage levels. The upside risk of competition for LNG supplies from Asia remains although demand has been muted so far this year. Ongoing Norwegian maintenance is providing some support.

• TTF JUN 23 down -0.7% at 36.54€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down 0% at 55.05€/MWh
• LNG net imports flows to Europe have dipped down to around 460mcm/d this week with slightly lower sendout to NW Europe and Italy. Output however remains relatively strong after seeing record levels in April.
• Norwegian imports are today up slightly to 308.5mcm/d but are expected to remain limited by maintenance outages this week. Maintenance at Troll is expected to continue until 8 May.
• European gas storage is healthy at 60.36% on 2 May according to GIE data with net injections near normal after a slow start to the refill season. The five year average for this time of year is 40.8% full.
• Temperatures in northwest Europe will be above normal over the coming week before falling back below in week two of the forecast.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today at 40.8mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are steady at 64.6mcm/d.