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TTF Extends Gains but Spreads Holding Steady

NATURAL GAS

TTF prices continues to rally with Mar24 up to the highest since Feb.13 ahead of the contract expiry today. The move at the front of the curve is followed by higher prices across the curve as the March contract still holds a discount to the Summer 24 price.

  • Front month has recovered since a low of 22.315€/MWh after a significant declining trend in place since a high of 56.1€/MWh in October. The lower prices could help to support an increase in interest from price sensitive LNG buyers in China and Asia.
  • US LNG exports are more profitable to Asia over Europe throughout the summer according to BNEF despite the longer journeys around Africa according to Kpler.
  • An unplanned outage reducing capacity at Skarv by 12mcm/d is adding to price support today. Norwegian supply is nominated down to 332.3mcm/d today.
  • The Mar 2024 - Sum 24 spread has narrowed slightly to -0.43€/MWh from around -0.75€/MWh on Feb.12.
  • The Sum 24 – Win 24 spread is today at -4.3€/MWh from -4.75€/MWh last week while the Sum24-Sum25 spread is holding around -3.1€/MWh.
    • TTF MAR 24 up 6.3% at 25.92€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 5.7% at 26.36€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 4.9% at 30.7€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 4.3% at 28.75€/MWh

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