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NATGAS: TTF Falls Nearly €10/MWh From Peak Earlier in Week

NATGAS
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TTF front month is extending the decline this week to fall around €10/MWh from a peak of €59.39/MWh on Feb. 11 under growing calls from member states to relax EU storage targets. Potential Ukraine peace talks, strong LNG imports driven by record US exports are adding bearish pressure and with the possibility of a correction to high net long market positioning.

  • Cold temperatures are forecast across much of Europe into early next week before milder weather returns as temperatures in NW Europe rise above normal for the second week of the outlook. Wind generation remains relatively low in the coming days.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe have recovered slightly to 323.1mcm/d today after a dip yesterday to 312.5mcm/d due to short unplanned outages.
  • European gas storage withdrawals were higher on the day to remain above normal. Storage was 46.57% full on Feb. 12, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 55.2%.
  • European LNG sendout has risen to the highest since Dec. 12 at just under 480mcm/d on Feb. 12 compared to an average of 434mcm/d so far in February.
  • Algeria gas flows to Italy at Mazara are today at 59.4mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • ICE TTF futures traded in a record high aggregate volume up at 823k on Feb. 13.
    • TTF MAR 25 down 3.1% at 49.77€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 3.2% at 49.5€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 25 down 3.1% at 47.46€/MWh
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TTF front month is extending the decline this week to fall around €10/MWh from a peak of €59.39/MWh on Feb. 11 under growing calls from member states to relax EU storage targets. Potential Ukraine peace talks, strong LNG imports driven by record US exports are adding bearish pressure and with the possibility of a correction to high net long market positioning.

  • Cold temperatures are forecast across much of Europe into early next week before milder weather returns as temperatures in NW Europe rise above normal for the second week of the outlook. Wind generation remains relatively low in the coming days.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe have recovered slightly to 323.1mcm/d today after a dip yesterday to 312.5mcm/d due to short unplanned outages.
  • European gas storage withdrawals were higher on the day to remain above normal. Storage was 46.57% full on Feb. 12, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 55.2%.
  • European LNG sendout has risen to the highest since Dec. 12 at just under 480mcm/d on Feb. 12 compared to an average of 434mcm/d so far in February.
  • Algeria gas flows to Italy at Mazara are today at 59.4mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • ICE TTF futures traded in a record high aggregate volume up at 823k on Feb. 13.
    • TTF MAR 25 down 3.1% at 49.77€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 3.2% at 49.5€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 25 down 3.1% at 47.46€/MWh