TTF Heading for Weekly Decline with Little Sign of Cold Weather

TTF front month is edging higher but heading for a net decline on the week due to warm weather, low demand and high storage. Supply disruptions remain a risk heading into the winter season with the potential for a restart to Australia LNG facility worker strikes.

• TTF NOV 23 up 0.5% at 36.4€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -0.2% at 43.8€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 0.2% at 42.95€/MWh
• The latest weather forecast shows temperatures across NW and central Europe generally holding above normal in the coming week before cooling from the middle of the month back to near normal.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 280.3mcm/d with ongoing outages including at Ormen Lange, Troll and Skarv. Total outages are around 62mcm/d today and expected to decline to 26mcm/d by 12 Oct.
• European natural gas storage is up to 96.47% full on 4 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 88.1%.

• LNG sendout to Europe increased to 319mcm/d on 4 Oct to the highest since early September but still below levels of around 375mcm/d seen this time last year.
• Gas transit flows through Ukraine are steady at 42.3mcm/d today but Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are at 56.8/d today.
• ICE TTF aggregate traded volumes were yesterday relatively unchanged at 248k contracts.