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TTF Pulls Back Amid High Storage and Muted Demand

NATURAL GAS

TTF front month is once again under bearish pressure with steady supplies, high storage and muted demand offsetting tighter LNG supply risks due to Red Sea tanker diversions and curtailed US exports terminal feedgas flows.

    • TTF MAR 24 down -1.4% at 27.96€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -1.1% at 28.6€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -0.9% at 33.09€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down -1.1% at 30.57€/MWh
  • Nominations for Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe have recovered slightly to 318mcm/d today but are still limited by unplanned outages at the Troll field due to a compressor failure and Nyhamna processing plant after a power supply failure.
  • Temperatures in NW and central Europe are still forecast to remain above normal this week but drift back to near normal of just below from around Feb 12.
  • Net withdrawal rates remain below normal with European natural gas storage at 68.92% full on Feb 4 according to GIE data compared to the seasonal five year average of 55.28%.
  • European LNG sendout was relatively unchanged on the day at 318mcm/d on Feb 4 and still low compared to Jan levels and flows seen in 2022 and 2023.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is at 54.0mcm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was on Friday at 221k.
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