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TTF Rallies Amid European Supply Risks

NATGAS
Energy BulletsCommodities

TTF rallies back to start of the week levels to reverse the losses from yesterday supported by seasonal maintenance in Norway and amid geopolitical risks despite ongoing Israel Hamas ceasefire talks.

  • Competition for LNG supplies could also rise with a severe heat wave in Southeast Asia pushing power demand to new records. The partial return of the US Freeport LNG export terminal will however help global supplies.
  • LNG sendout to Europe has however held steady amid muted demand in the region while storage levels remain high despite net withdrawals seen last week.
  • The gains in the front TTF contract have helped close the spread to the remainder of the summer taking the TTF Jun 24 – Q3 24 spread from -0.62/MWh on April 23 to -€0.435/MWh today.
  • The Q3 24 – Q1 25 spread continues to slowly widen to extend the trend since mid March, falling from -€4.1/MWh on March 19 to -€5.8/MWh.
    • TTF JUN 24 up 3.2% at 28.98€/MWh
    • TTF Q3 24 up 3.2% at 29.54€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 3% at 34.32€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 3.3% at 32.75€/MWh
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TTF rallies back to start of the week levels to reverse the losses from yesterday supported by seasonal maintenance in Norway and amid geopolitical risks despite ongoing Israel Hamas ceasefire talks.

  • Competition for LNG supplies could also rise with a severe heat wave in Southeast Asia pushing power demand to new records. The partial return of the US Freeport LNG export terminal will however help global supplies.
  • LNG sendout to Europe has however held steady amid muted demand in the region while storage levels remain high despite net withdrawals seen last week.
  • The gains in the front TTF contract have helped close the spread to the remainder of the summer taking the TTF Jun 24 – Q3 24 spread from -0.62/MWh on April 23 to -€0.435/MWh today.
  • The Q3 24 – Q1 25 spread continues to slowly widen to extend the trend since mid March, falling from -€4.1/MWh on March 19 to -€5.8/MWh.
    • TTF JUN 24 up 3.2% at 28.98€/MWh
    • TTF Q3 24 up 3.2% at 29.54€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 3% at 34.32€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 3.3% at 32.75€/MWh