TTF Rally Continues on Supply Risks and Cooler Weather
TTF front month opens higher again today with a combination of factors adding risk to European supplies heading into the winter heating season. Supply risks from Middle East tensions and the halt to production at the Tamar field are adding to a suspected leak in the undersea Baltic pipeline between Finland and Estonia and the planned restart of Australia LNG facility strikes.
- TTF NOV 23 up 5.9% at 46.53€/MWh
- TTF Q1 24 up 3.9% at 51.05€/MWh
- TTF SUM 24 up 3.9% at 49.35€/MWh
- The latest weather forecast shows temperatures across NW Europe falling down below normal from the middle of the month after the warm weather this week.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 295.9mcm/d as supplies continue to slowly recover from seasonal maintenance. Total outages are expected to decline to just 16.5mcm/d by 16 Oct according to Gassco.
- Above normal injection rates have helped European natural gas storage levels back up to the five year range highs at 97.01% full on 8 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 88.6%.
- LNG sendout to Europe is estimated at 267mcm/d on 8 Oct compared to an average of nearly 300mcm/d over the previous week.
- Gas transit flows through Ukraine are at 42.4mcm/d today and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are edging back up to 49.4mcm/d today after dipping over the weekend.
- ICE TTF daily aggregate traded volumes surged yesterday up to 330k contracts compared to an average of 241k so far in Oct.