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TTF Recovers Some Losses But Upside Limited by High Storage

NATURAL GAS

TTF front month has recovered slightly during the day but remains down near the lowest since early Oct with muted demand, healthy near term supply and high storage helping to ease winter supply risks. Withdrawals from European natural gas storage have increased this week but remained below the previous five year average levels on Nov 26 according to the latest GIE data.

  • European natural gas storage is down to 97.43% full on Nov 26 according to GIE data but still well above the seasonal five year average of 86.2%.
  • Net withdrawals in the week to Nov 26 averaged 2,537GWh/d compared to the 2018-2022 average for the period of just over 3,330GWh/d.
  • Storage in Germany is at 252.3TWh (99.0% full), Italy is at 188.9TWh (95.9%), Netherlands at 137.6TWh (96.6%), France at 132.3Wh (98.5%) and Austria at 96.15Wh (98.5%).
  • The EU natural storage is set to end the winter 45% full according to BNEF assuming 10 year average weather while Moody’s forecast end of season stocks at 55% full.
    • TTF DEC 23 down -2.8% at 42.75€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 24 down -2.8% at 43.82€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 down -2.6% at 42.94€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down -2.3% at 46.77€/MWh


Source: GIE / Bloomberg

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