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TTF Remains Bearish With Healthy Supplies Despite Norway Outages

NATURAL GAS

TTF remains under bearish pressure with front month yesterday falling below the lows from last week and the lowest since July 2021. High LNG imports, healthy storage levels and low demand continue to weigh on European prices with no significant increase in LNG demand from Asia. Ongoing Norwegian maintenance is providing some support.

    • TTF JUN 23 down -0.6% at 37.3€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 up 0% at 55.9€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 0.1% at 54.05€/MWh
  • LNG supplies to Europe have dipped down to around 450mcm/d on 1 May but are still at relatively strong levels compared to the average of about 468mcm/d in April.
  • Norwegian imports are today at 290.7mcm/d with outages scheduled to continue into mid May. Current outages are impacting output from Troll, Gullfaks, Karsto and Kollsnes.
  • European gas storage is healthy at 60.16% on 1 May according to GIE data with net injections now near normal after a slow start to the refill season. The five year average for this time of year is 40.5% full.
  • Temperatures in northwest Europe are expected to move above normal at the end of this week but could dip back towards normal or below in week two of the outlook. Wind generation could also increase slightly but remains fairly low.
  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are today at 40.9mcm/d and Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara are down to 64.5mcm/d.

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