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TTF Rises Through High From Last Week Amid Supply Fears

NATURAL GAS

TTF front month trades through the highs of 42.5€/MWh seen last week amid risks to competition for global supplies due to potential LNG worker strikes in Australia and with upcoming Norway maintenance.

  • On 2 September industrial action could begin at Woodside’s North West Shelf if talks are not resolved by 23 August.
  • The Q1 2024 premium over the front month is drifting lower today with the near term prices gaining faster than future seasons amid the near term supply risks. Q1 2024 – Sep 23 is down from just over 20€/MWh on 18 Aug back to around 16.7€/MWh.
  • High storage levels heading in the winter heating season will help to ease energy security concerns, but unexpected supply disruptions or cold weather could still result in low stocks in the spring and pressure supplies next summer heading into Win24.
  • The Win24-Win23 spread is continuing to pull back from a peak of nearly 7.3€/MWh at the end of July back to 2.0€/MWh.
    • TTF SEP 23 up 5.6% at 43.07€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 23 up 2.9% at 57.21€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 24 up 2% at 56.64€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 1.7% at 59.2€/MWh

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