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TURKEY: Headline Inflation Dips for First Time This Year

TURKEY
  • Headline inflation slipped to +71.60% Y/Y in June (Est: +72.60%) from +74.98% the previous month, marking the first slowdown for the series in eight months. Monthly price growth came in at +1.64% against expectations of +2.20%, while core inflation rose +71.41% Y/Y (Est: +73.17%; Prior: +74.98%).
  • While officials are optimistic that the slowdown will mark the start of rapid disinflation, many analysts see inflation ending the year above the central bank’s goal of 38%, despite an expected steep slowdown in July and August driven largely by base effects.
  • That said, the declining likelihood of a minimum wage hike in July, as well as a sustained slowdown in activity and a stable lira, could contribute to a substantia l fall in expectations of households and firms going forward.
  • USD/TRY dipped moderately on the release of the data but has since settled at around unchanged levels on the day. The pair sits ~0.6% lower on the week overall.
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