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Recovering Off Recent Lows

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FED Reverse Repo Operation

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Downtrend Extends

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  • Following sharp cuts in domestic interest rates, Turkey's benchmark stock index has turned positive for the first time since March 2021 following the shock dismissal of CBRT Governor Agbal.
  • Turkish stocks have underperformed peers SA & Russia throughout 2021, with inflation and monetary policy concerns plaguing market confidence and stock returns. However, since the start of October, the index has risen 8.56% vs 4.56% in SA & 3.57% in Russia - given its deeply undervalued status vs its peers.
  • YTD, Russian stocks remain the clear standout, buoyed by sky-high energy prices, lower geopolitical risks and a firmer RUB owing to the CBR tightening cycle. SA, by contrast, has stagnated with stocks trading broadly sideways to lower since March 2021 in line with tempered growth expectations in China and softer PGM prices.
  • From a valuation standpoint, Turkey's index remains undervalued vs its peers and the broader EM universe. The Bist100 holds a P/E of 7.56x & P/B of 1.12x, Russia's MOEX: P/E 9.38x & P/B of 1.26 & SA's Top40: P/E 11.49x, P/B 2.09x.
  • Price action in the Bist100 has reached key resistance formed by the bull channel pattern dating back to the march 2021 lows - a fraction above the 1,500 level.
  • A break through 15.21 opens up a move towards 1,557 and the yearly swing high at 1,590 - with markets expecting more policy easing in the pipeline into year end. However, a failure to close above the top of the channel in the near-term may yield a near-term pullback from the top of the channel.