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Twist Flattening Ahead Of Eagerly Awaited Payrolls Report

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys have twist flattened as later dated Fed implied rates have lifted - more on that in the separate bullet – and with the pivot only after 10s. It follows yesterday’s large bear steepening and sees 2s10s pullback to -74bps from yesterday’s multi-week highs of -69bps. The July nonfarm payrolls report is firmly the focus of the US session – see the MNI Preview here.
  • 2YY +4.9bp at 4.930%, 5YY +3.2bp at 4.324%, 10YY +1.5bp at 4.190% and 30YY -0.6bp at 4.285%
  • TYU3 trades 4+ ticks lower at session and fresh YTD lows of 110-03 after clearing a key support at yesterday’s low of 110-05+, and with no meaningful technical support until the Nov 8, 2022 low of 109-14. An earlier 2,790 lot block trade, which looked like a buyer at 110-04+ (DV01 ~$182K), is probably helping to prevent further cheapening impulses with cumulative volumes on the lower side at 260k vs most recent averages.
  • Data: Payrolls Jul (0830ET)
  • No scheduled Fedspeak, no issuance
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