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STIR: Two Fed Speakers Lined Up Straight Out Of Blackout

STIR
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have rolled over in spillover from soft regional German CPI inflation, reversing a push higher following President Trump yesterday reiterating the intention to put 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico tomorrow.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 4.5bp Mar, 12.5bp May, 24.5bp Jun, 30bp Jul and 47bp Dec.
  • The Q4 ECI and monthly PCE report headlines data but we also see two FOMC members lined up on the first day with the FOMC blackout lifted, with Bowman (permanent voter) before Goolsbee (’25 voter) on CNBC.
  • 0830ET – Bowman will provide text but not Q&A and only gives brief remarks on the economy and her perspective on mutual and community banks, which could limit scope. Typically one of the most hawkish FOMC members, she said Jan 9 that she prefers a cautious and gradual approach to adjusting rates, thought policy may not be as restrictive as other think and saw greater risks to price stability than the labor market.
  • ~1000ET – Goolsbee is set to speak on CNBC a little after 1000ET. He’s at the other end of the spectrum to Bowman, being the preeminent dove on the committee. He said Jan 15 that “the trend continues to be improvement in inflation…I’m still optimistic for 2025 that we can continue growing and have a soft landing”. He was also wary of the seasonal pattern of inflation. 
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have rolled over in spillover from soft regional German CPI inflation, reversing a push higher following President Trump yesterday reiterating the intention to put 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico tomorrow.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 4.5bp Mar, 12.5bp May, 24.5bp Jun, 30bp Jul and 47bp Dec.
  • The Q4 ECI and monthly PCE report headlines data but we also see two FOMC members lined up on the first day with the FOMC blackout lifted, with Bowman (permanent voter) before Goolsbee (’25 voter) on CNBC.
  • 0830ET – Bowman will provide text but not Q&A and only gives brief remarks on the economy and her perspective on mutual and community banks, which could limit scope. Typically one of the most hawkish FOMC members, she said Jan 9 that she prefers a cautious and gradual approach to adjusting rates, thought policy may not be as restrictive as other think and saw greater risks to price stability than the labor market.
  • ~1000ET – Goolsbee is set to speak on CNBC a little after 1000ET. He’s at the other end of the spectrum to Bowman, being the preeminent dove on the committee. He said Jan 15 that “the trend continues to be improvement in inflation…I’m still optimistic for 2025 that we can continue growing and have a soft landing”. He was also wary of the seasonal pattern of inflation. 
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