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TYH2 Off Lows, ISM Service Prices Paid Ahead

US TSY FUTURES
  • TYH2 has moved off its recent low of 128-14 and sits at 128-19, towards the middle of the morning range in London after selling off overnight. It’s down 8 ticks on the day or 17.5 ticks since the highs shortly before the FOMC minutes.
  • It cleared a key support level of 128-22+ (Nov 22 low) early today, opening 128-08 (=1.78% yields) and 128-05 (1.618 proj of the Dec 20-29-31 price swing). Resistance is seen at 129-19 (Jan 4 high).
  • ISM Services for Dec at 1000ET could be important. If the surprisingly large slide in prices paid in Tuesday’s mfg survey is repeated in services, we could see a further increase in TYH2.
  • It would be a surprise after yesterday’s Markit PMI release showed a divergence between service cost pressures rising to record highs and moderating manufacturing pressures.
  • Regional Fed Presidents Daly (non-voter, 1130ET) and Bullard (2022, 1315ET) speak later.
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