TYH2 Through Resistance On Putin’s Latest Move

TYH2 gaps higher at the re-open, printing +0-16+ (vs. Friday’s settlement) at 127-06 at typing, after showing as high as 127-07+. The move higher has taken the contract through initial resistance in the form of the Feb 7 high, in addition to the 20-day EMA. The Feb 4 high (127-24) provides the next meaningful point of technical resistance.

• TYH2 is building on Monday’s gains, which came in a thin, abbreviated session (owing to the observance of the President’s Day holiday in the U.S.). Participants are reacting to Russia’s official recognition of the DPR & LPR, the two separatist regions in Eastern Ukraine. Western nations are in the process of tabling sanctions, with the leaders of the U.S., Germany, France, the UK & NATO already flagging their displeasure re: Putin’s latest move. We also note that Putin has ordered the dispatch of peacekeeping troops into the breakaway regions, with the first batch of Russian military personnel already entering the separatist states, per reports.
• Ultimately continued worry re: the Russia-Ukraine situation, including skirmishes surrounding separatist territories and Russia killing 5 Ukrainians who tried to “violate the border,” underpinned Tsys during Monday’s London session, with the early optimism surrounding the agreement in-principle re: a Biden-Putin meeting fading.
• Note that Monday also saw Fed Governor Bowman point to a data-dependent stance when it came to the prospect of a 50bp hike at the March meeting,
• There isn’t much in the way of meaningful macro data due during Asia-Pac hours with house price data, flash Markit PMI readings, Richmond Fed m’fing data and the latest round of conference board consumer confidence readings all due during Tuesday’s NY session. Elsewhere, we will also see the latest round of 2-Year supply, in addition to Fedspeak from Bostic (’24 voter).