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U.Mich Does Little To Change Tsy Steepening

DATA REACT
  • U.Mich consumer inflation expectations dipped a tenth in the finalised Dec survey after an unchanged preliminary report. The 1y is 4.8% and 5-10y is 2.9%, just off the multi-year highs of 3%.
  • General sentiment expectations were revised up a little further and supported by the announced increase in Social Security payments for 2022: “There have only been five times in the past half century that income expectations among low income households have exceeded the December 2021 level.”
  • However, “too few interviews were conducted to capture the impact of the rapid spread of the Omicron variant in the U.S. Confidence”.
  • The report has done little to change the bear steepening in USTs since the equity cash open.
  • Cash Tsys have seen 2s10s widen 3bps (2.5bps prior to the data) to 81bps as the 10 yield increases 3bps close to week highs of 1.49%.
  • TYH2 is currently down 6 ticks over the past hour at 130-16+ having briefly dipped to a session low of 130-15. A resumption of weakness would further expose support at 130-07+ (Dec 13/15 low) and then 129-31 (Dec 8 low).
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