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U.S. Macro Signal - July 2024: Domestic Engine Humming A Little Less Strongly

MNI's inaugural U.S. Macro Signal offers an in-depth look at the latest economic trends and what they mean looking ahead

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • After a booming second half of 2023, US domestic demand has moderated but remained solid so far in 2024.
  • Household savings accumulated during the pandemic have mostly been exhausted, growth-positive fiscal impulses are waning, and the labor market has moved into better balance compared with previously very tight conditions.
  • But with inflation showing inconsistent progress in returning to 2% and growth remaining at or above potential, the timing of the elusive first Fed rate cut keeps getting pushed back.
  • Current forecasts for the second half of 2024 point to diminished domestic demand, including weaker consumer spending and private investment, but core inflation remaining elevated.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

2024_06_US_Macro_Signal.pdf


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • After a booming second half of 2023, US domestic demand has moderated but remained solid so far in 2024.
  • Household savings accumulated during the pandemic have mostly been exhausted, growth-positive fiscal impulses are waning, and the labor market has moved into better balance compared with previously very tight conditions.
  • But with inflation showing inconsistent progress in returning to 2% and growth remaining at or above potential, the timing of the elusive first Fed rate cut keeps getting pushed back.
  • Current forecasts for the second half of 2024 point to diminished domestic demand, including weaker consumer spending and private investment, but core inflation remaining elevated.

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

2024_06_US_Macro_Signal.pdf