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UBS Equity Analysts Upgrade Carlsberg; Pernod to Report this Week; China in Focus for Both

CONSUMER CYCLICALS

Carlsberg {CARLB DC Equity} (Baa2 Pos, NR, BBB+ S) - the brewer upgraded to Neutral at UBS at PT of DKK 990 (~+5%)

It's already up +5.5% (at 945) since earnings. As we said last week only see small potential for € curve to firm on Baa1 upgrade; ~ trades +10bps wide in the belly to Heineken (A2, BBB+) & Pernod Ricard (Baa1, BBB+). Question will be if Moody's sees headline beat & long-term target upgrade as enough in the face of Asia markets that disappointed - a recovery was key for Moody's - company guidance was for 'stabilisation' in the market. Curve little changed since last week.

Pernod reports on Thursday, we see it having highest exposure to Asia (Heineken has the lowest) which is similarly a area of focus for it/analyst - both market performance & any potential China tariff's on Cognac following antidumping probe.

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