Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
Reporting on key macro data at the time of release.
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
- Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
- Political RiskPolitical Risk
Intelligence on key political and geopolitical events around the world.
- About Us
DOLLAR-YEN: UBS note that "USD/JPY has remained in a relatively tight range
since the beginning of Aug, which may seem puzzling given the JPY's 'safe-haven'
status. Looking across asset classes, the risk rally that immediately followed
the announcement of U.S. trade tariffs limits the scope for JPY appreciation. In
a tail risk scenario where the impact of trade policy materially worsens the
global growth outlook, JPY strength would likely be limited by the broader 'Asia
effect', whereby upward pressure on $/Asia supports higher USD/JPY to some
extent. Any adjustments to BoJ policy next year are likely to keep real rates
accommodative, while the Fed's tightening path is already well-priced. Our
economists exp. a 25bp hike in the 10-Year yield target & a non-negative
short-term rate in Apr '19. On balance, the relatively minor tweaks from the Jul
meeting are not a meaningful deviation from ultra-easy policy. We exp. USD/JPY
to remain in a relatively tight range, settling at Y111 by end-'19. USD/JPY
could be vulnerable to a less hawkish Fed in Q4 but overall our view remains
broadly neutral. U.S. 10-Year yields are unlikely to move sustainably higher and
should not catalyse further USD/JPY upside."