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UK CPI Data Due at 7:00GMT

UK DATA
  • UK markets are primed for the release of November inflation this morning. The MPC did not have advanced sight of the data in their monetary policy deliberations last week and they noted that although October inflation had come in softer-than-expected, a number of components that had contributed to the surprise were not necessarily drivers of a clear underlying trend.
  • Headline CPI is generally expected to fall by -0.2 or -0.3ppt to 4.4%Y/Y or 4.3%Y/Y (analysts are largely split between the two).
  • Expectations are generally split between services inflation remaining at 6.6%Y/Y or falling -0.1ppt to 6.5%Y/Y.
  • The median for Core CPI is 5.6% - but there seem to be two way risks here.

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