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UK CPI Weighs With Waller, FOMC Mins and 5Y Supply Ahead

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys trade twist steeper on the day with a pivot beyond the 5s, but increasingly less steep as the front end holds a decent sell-off post UK CPI beating and BoE pricing surging (2Y yields based off yesterday’s new issue), whilst the long-end has more than reversed the initial cheapening.
  • Reuters reports that debt talk negotiators are expected to reconvene on Wed morning with Biden "willing to meet the Speaker halfway" and offering a compromise, which includes a spending freeze, rescinding significant unspent COVID relief funds and a two-year cap on spending in line with previous bipartisan budget agreements.
  • 2YY +2.1bp at 4.285%, 5YY +0.0bp at 3.743%, 10YY -1.0bp at 3.682%, 30YY -1.5bp at 3.933%.
  • TYM3 trades 1+ tick higher at 113-21 off an overnight high of 113-23+, with higher than recent average volumes of 335k cumulative after elevated activity around UK CPI. Resistance is seen at the recent breakout level of 113-30+ (Apr 19 low).
  • Fedspeak: Gov Waller (1210ET, text + Q&A), FOMC minutes (1400ET)
  • Data: MBA weekly mortgage data (0700ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $22B 2Y Note FRN (91282CGY1) – 1130ET before US Tsy $43B 5Y Note auction (91282CHE4) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $42B 17W bills – 1130ET
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