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UK DATA: BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Growth Sees Mild Acceleration
UK total retail sales growth accelerated in August to 1.0% Y/Y after 0.5% Y/Y in July, now at the highest since March 2024 but still significantly below the March reading.
- It compares with a 3-month average of 0.4% Y/Y and a 12-month of 1.2% Y/Y.
- Like-For-Like sales rose 0.8% Y/Y (vs 0.3% prior); whilst an improvement, it is in-line with the year-to-date average (excluding volatile Easter-affected data for April).
- Although this is a value rather than volume series, the continued improvement combined with other recent data including PMIs suggests growing demand in the economy, and potential upside risk for core goods inflation.
- The acceleration in total sales was driven by food sales growth accelerating to 2.9% 3M Y/Y in the three months ending August (vs 2.6% prior) whilst Non-Food Sales declined 1.7% 3M Y/Y again.
- The trend in the ONS series and BRC-KPMG series suggests the former could see a further acceleration in Y/Y terms in the next couple of months (the BRC-KPMG series has tended to see cooler growth rates over the past eighteen months but can help directionally).
- Chief Executive of the BRC stated that whilst sales picked up due to weather-induced demand and purchases, the subdued retail sales is because "many will be waiting for the Chancellor's Autumn Budget before finalising their investment strategies".
- Data covers 28 July - 24 August 2024.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.