UK DATA
UK total retail sales growth accelerated in August to 1.0% Y/Y after 0.5% Y/Y in July, now at the highest since March 2024 but still significantly below the March reading.
- It compares with a 3-month average of 0.4% Y/Y and a 12-month of 1.2% Y/Y.
- Like-For-Like sales rose 0.8% Y/Y (vs 0.3% prior); whilst an improvement, it is in-line with the year-to-date average (excluding volatile Easter-affected data for April).
- Although this is a value rather than volume series, the continued improvement combined with other recent data including PMIs suggests growing demand in the economy, and potential upside risk for core goods inflation.
- The acceleration in total sales was driven by food sales growth accelerating to 2.9% 3M Y/Y in the three months ending August (vs 2.6% prior) whilst Non-Food Sales declined 1.7% 3M Y/Y again.
- The trend in the ONS series and BRC-KPMG series suggests the former could see a further acceleration in Y/Y terms in the next couple of months (the BRC-KPMG series has tended to see cooler growth rates over the past eighteen months but can help directionally).
- Chief Executive of the BRC stated that whilst sales picked up due to weather-induced demand and purchases, the subdued retail sales is because "many will be waiting for the Chancellor's Autumn Budget before finalising their investment strategies".
- Data covers 28 July - 24 August 2024.
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