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UK Data Forecasts: Aug CBI Industrial, Distributive Trends

MNI (London)
By Jamie Satchithanantham
     LONDON (MNI) - Production and manufacturing data from the Confederation of
British Industry (CBI) has come in a lot stronger than both official data and
market surveys in recent months, leaving analysts trying to decipher the true
shape of industry.     
     Though last month's quarterly CBI Industrial Trends Survey reported a
moderation of its headline Order Books Balance by 6.0 points to +10.0 in July,
this was above the series average of -14 from records extending all the way back
to 1995. 
     The latest quarterly report, also released last month, highlighted better
this disparity between the different data sources. In the three months to July,
output rose at the fastest pace since Jan 1995 and was expected to expand at a
solid pace over the next three months led by robust domestic and foreign orders.
     Casting thoughts to the data for August, of the four analysts who gave a
prediction, it seems a mixed bag. Two expect headline orders to fall back
(Pantheon, Standard Chartered), another sees it unchanged (Capital Economics)
while the fourth forecasts it picking up (Oxford Economics).
     Again, we attribute this to the contrasting pictures painted by both the
CBI survey and official data. The median outcome is for the orders balance to
have slipped one point to +9.0 in August.
------------------------------------------------
                                             Aug
                    CBI Industrial Trends Survey
                             Order Books Balance
                                               %
Date Out                                  22-Aug
Median                                       9.0
Forecast High                               12.0
Forecast Low                                 5.0
Standard Deviation                           3.0
Count                                          4
Prior                                       10.0
Capital Economics                           10.0
Oxford Economics                            12.0
Pantheon                                     5.0
Standard Chartered                           8.0
     On what will be a busy day data-wise, Thursday will also see the release of
the another CBI survey, thee Distributive Trades Survey, providing a glimpse
into how retail sales fared in August. 
     Expectations of minimal sales were exceeded in July, coming in above
'seasonal norms' according to the CBI. The volume of reported sales rose to +22
in July, above the +3 expected value set in June and a three-month high, rising
10 points for the second month in a row.
     The main drivers of growth were found within the grocery and clothing
sectors while household goods, specialist food and drink, and other normal goods
receded on the month, according to the CBI. 
     Expected volumes for August were set at +20 last month, indicating
retailers did not anticipate a marked drop-off in consumer activity as we
approach the end of summer. 
     The MNI median of analysts' forecasts, shown below, at +16 is slightly less
optimistic. The range of the forecasts spans from +5.0, from Capital Economics
who see a significant slowdown in activity, to +18.0 (Standard Chartered). 
--------------------------------------------------
                                               Aug
                    CBI Distributive Trades Survey
                              Retail Sales Balance
                                                 %
Date Out                                    24-Aug
Median                                       16.00
Forecast High                                 20.0
Forecast Low                                   5.0
Standard Deviation                             6.7
Count                                            4
Prior                                         22.0
Capital Economics                              5.0
JP Morgan                                     14.0
Oxford Economics                              20.0
Standard Chartered                            18.0
--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
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