UK Data Forecasts: Aug Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 09:38 GMT Aug 29/05:38 EST Aug 29

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - Growth in the UK manufacturing sector is seen little changed

in August, slipping marginally from July levels, a survey to be released Friday

is expected to show.

     Last month, the IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI, picked up to 55.1 from

54.2 in June.

     According to Markit, manufacturers reported "stronger inflows of new work,

higher levels of production, improved job creation, longer supplier delivery

times and a slight increase in inventory holdings", all assisted by strong

export performances which rose by the second highest rate in the the survey's

history.

     Despite this, the rate of expansion of manufacturing production did ease to

its lowest level since March.

     Of the analysts polled, the general consensus is that there was probably

not any material change in manufacturers' fortunes in August. 

     The MNI median stands at 55.0, little changed from July's outturn, with

three analysts (Credit Suisse, RBC and Societe Generale) expecting a bigger fall

and another three (Barclays, Berenberg and Lloyds) expecting a rise in the

survey's headline index.

---------------------------------

                              Aug

                    Manufacturing

                              PMI

                            Index

Date Out                    1-Sep

Median                       55.0

Forecast High                56.0

Forecast Low                 54.5

Standard Deviation            0.4

Count                          13

Prior                        55.1

Barclays                     55.5

Berenberg                    56.0

Capital Economics            55.0

Credit Suisse                54.5

Commerzbank                  55.0

Investec                     55.1

JP Morgan                    55.0

Lloyds TSB                   55.5

Nomura                       55.0

Oxford Economics             55.0

Pantheon                     55.1

RBC                          54.7

Societe Generale             54.7

     Survey data and official data have not moved hand-in-hand in recent months

with the former consistently coming in more bullish.

     The CBI Industrial Trends survey, released last Tuesday, again posted

results on the optimistic side. The total order balance rose three points to +13

while the export order balance rose 9 points to +11.

     The latest official data, meanwhile, had manufacturing output down 0.6% on

the quarter, subtracting 0.1pp from the 0.3% q/q growth in gross domestic

product.

     As such, the latest batch of data will help those trying to decipher

whether the surveys simply lead the official data, with a rebound in activity

set in Q3, or whether their relationship is starting to break down.

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]