US NOV FLASH MANUF PMI 48.8 (FCST: 48.9); OCT 48.5

MNI:Largest Canada New Home Price Dip Since `09 Led By Toronto

CANADIAN OCT FLASH RETAIL SALES +0.7%, 4TH STRAIGHT INCREASE

MNI China Daily Summary: Friday, November 22

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY345.9 Bln via OMO Friday

MNI BRIEF: Fed Should Explore Central Clearing At SRF-Hammack

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Germany, France Auction on Monday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Gilt Syndi; IT, EU Due Monday

MNI: UNIV OF MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT FINAL NOV INDEX 71.8

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

MNI EXCLUSIVE: German Turmoil Dashes EU's Joint-Funding Hopes -Officials

FED: Powell's Time Looks Up, Replacement Could Be Less Willing To Cut Rates?

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

UK DATA: Labour market data broadly in line with expectations

UK DATA
CEEMEAData BulletBulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets
  • Looking at private regular AWE in more detail: There was an upward revision to the single month reading for August from 4.51%Y/Y to 4.59%Y/Y (leading to the 3-months to August being revised up marginally from 4.83%Y/Y from 4.81%Y/Y). The September single month print came in at 4.89%Y/Y - which with the exception of the low August print, is the lowest Y/Y single month reading since April 2022 - but more in line with the readings seen between May-July which were between 4.94-4.98%Y/Y. Looking at this individual cohort, however, there is very little progress here. On the comparable single month figures We have moved from 4.98%Y/Y in June to 4.89%Y/Y in September over a 3-month period.
  • Looking at private AWE in a couple of different ways: in M/M terms (which we don't like because you are comparing different cohorts), the reading is 0.47% - the highest since April. But looking at momentum (3m/3m) it has fallen to 4.21% annualised in September from 4.71% in August, and the lowest since January.
  • So there is something for everyone in the private AWE data here. The BOE forecast for the 3-months to September was 4.75%Y/Y - so today's print was 0.14ppt higher than expected. That's not really a huge deviation.
  • The total pay numbers and public sector pay numbers we don't pay too much attention to here - they are skewed by one-off payments and don't really give much predictive power.
  • On the unemployment side, there was very little in terms of revisions. The number of 16+ unemployed jumped by 100k from 1.386mln to 1.486mln while the total number in employment fell by 59k. This increased the unemployment rate to 4.27% from 3.99% without a change in the economic inactivity rate. But given the issues with the LFS survey - this could well be a spurious move.
  • So to sum up - wage data marginally stronger, quantities data marginally weaker, but this shouldn't really change anyone's voting intentions.
319 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Looking at private regular AWE in more detail: There was an upward revision to the single month reading for August from 4.51%Y/Y to 4.59%Y/Y (leading to the 3-months to August being revised up marginally from 4.83%Y/Y from 4.81%Y/Y). The September single month print came in at 4.89%Y/Y - which with the exception of the low August print, is the lowest Y/Y single month reading since April 2022 - but more in line with the readings seen between May-July which were between 4.94-4.98%Y/Y. Looking at this individual cohort, however, there is very little progress here. On the comparable single month figures We have moved from 4.98%Y/Y in June to 4.89%Y/Y in September over a 3-month period.
  • Looking at private AWE in a couple of different ways: in M/M terms (which we don't like because you are comparing different cohorts), the reading is 0.47% - the highest since April. But looking at momentum (3m/3m) it has fallen to 4.21% annualised in September from 4.71% in August, and the lowest since January.
  • So there is something for everyone in the private AWE data here. The BOE forecast for the 3-months to September was 4.75%Y/Y - so today's print was 0.14ppt higher than expected. That's not really a huge deviation.
  • The total pay numbers and public sector pay numbers we don't pay too much attention to here - they are skewed by one-off payments and don't really give much predictive power.
  • On the unemployment side, there was very little in terms of revisions. The number of 16+ unemployed jumped by 100k from 1.386mln to 1.486mln while the total number in employment fell by 59k. This increased the unemployment rate to 4.27% from 3.99% without a change in the economic inactivity rate. But given the issues with the LFS survey - this could well be a spurious move.
  • So to sum up - wage data marginally stronger, quantities data marginally weaker, but this shouldn't really change anyone's voting intentions.