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UK DATA: Labour market data broadly in line with expectations

UK DATA
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  • Looking at private regular AWE in more detail: There was an upward revision to the single month reading for August from 4.51%Y/Y to 4.59%Y/Y (leading to the 3-months to August being revised up marginally from 4.83%Y/Y from 4.81%Y/Y). The September single month print came in at 4.89%Y/Y - which with the exception of the low August print, is the lowest Y/Y single month reading since April 2022 - but more in line with the readings seen between May-July which were between 4.94-4.98%Y/Y. Looking at this individual cohort, however, there is very little progress here. On the comparable single month figures We have moved from 4.98%Y/Y in June to 4.89%Y/Y in September over a 3-month period.
  • Looking at private AWE in a couple of different ways: in M/M terms (which we don't like because you are comparing different cohorts), the reading is 0.47% - the highest since April. But looking at momentum (3m/3m) it has fallen to 4.21% annualised in September from 4.71% in August, and the lowest since January.
  • So there is something for everyone in the private AWE data here. The BOE forecast for the 3-months to September was 4.75%Y/Y - so today's print was 0.14ppt higher than expected. That's not really a huge deviation.
  • The total pay numbers and public sector pay numbers we don't pay too much attention to here - they are skewed by one-off payments and don't really give much predictive power.
  • On the unemployment side, there was very little in terms of revisions. The number of 16+ unemployed jumped by 100k from 1.386mln to 1.486mln while the total number in employment fell by 59k. This increased the unemployment rate to 4.27% from 3.99% without a change in the economic inactivity rate. But given the issues with the LFS survey - this could well be a spurious move.
  • So to sum up - wage data marginally stronger, quantities data marginally weaker, but this shouldn't really change anyone's voting intentions.
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  • Looking at private regular AWE in more detail: There was an upward revision to the single month reading for August from 4.51%Y/Y to 4.59%Y/Y (leading to the 3-months to August being revised up marginally from 4.83%Y/Y from 4.81%Y/Y). The September single month print came in at 4.89%Y/Y - which with the exception of the low August print, is the lowest Y/Y single month reading since April 2022 - but more in line with the readings seen between May-July which were between 4.94-4.98%Y/Y. Looking at this individual cohort, however, there is very little progress here. On the comparable single month figures We have moved from 4.98%Y/Y in June to 4.89%Y/Y in September over a 3-month period.
  • Looking at private AWE in a couple of different ways: in M/M terms (which we don't like because you are comparing different cohorts), the reading is 0.47% - the highest since April. But looking at momentum (3m/3m) it has fallen to 4.21% annualised in September from 4.71% in August, and the lowest since January.
  • So there is something for everyone in the private AWE data here. The BOE forecast for the 3-months to September was 4.75%Y/Y - so today's print was 0.14ppt higher than expected. That's not really a huge deviation.
  • The total pay numbers and public sector pay numbers we don't pay too much attention to here - they are skewed by one-off payments and don't really give much predictive power.
  • On the unemployment side, there was very little in terms of revisions. The number of 16+ unemployed jumped by 100k from 1.386mln to 1.486mln while the total number in employment fell by 59k. This increased the unemployment rate to 4.27% from 3.99% without a change in the economic inactivity rate. But given the issues with the LFS survey - this could well be a spurious move.
  • So to sum up - wage data marginally stronger, quantities data marginally weaker, but this shouldn't really change anyone's voting intentions.